Are netbooks a fad or a major trend?

The ultra-portable small notebook continues to be in the news with observers asking many questions. Are they the opening wedge for Linux to at last make progress with the general public? Are they a blow to Microsoft? Are they part of the decline of the desktop? Are they a fad? PC World analyzes the netbook development in The Rise (and Possible Fall) of Ultraportable Laptops. The article begins:

For some users, the new generation of ultraportable notebooks comes close to embodying the Holy Grail for road warriors. Their laptop-like keyboards make them more usable for typing tasks than smart phones, but they are lighter and cheaper than traditional laptops. The original Asus Eee PC, for instance, cost about $400 and weighed about two pounds when it was introduced last October.

However, while pundits and technology journalists have lavished attention on these products, skeptics have raised questions. For instance, is there anything really special about these devices, or do they just represent old technology in new packaging? Are users as enthusiastic about these tiny laptops as the pundits are? Will they fade away like so many other “next big things”? And perhaps the oddest question: What do we call these things, anyway?

“It’s way too early to talk about this being a viable product category,” says Avi Greengart, mobile device research director at Current Analysis Inc. “I’m not sure how much of a market there is for them, particularly with subnotebooks like MacBook Air with [larger] keyboards and displays getting thinner and lighter. And you can get some real work done on, say, an iPhone or a Nokia E-series smart phone.”

Meanwhile, the current popularity of netbooks is sufficient to have led to a price reduction. The New York Times reports:

The entire category of so-called netbooks – personal computers designed primarily for Internet use – may be headed over a price cliff, according to industry analysts.
That notion was one take away of the Intel Developer’s Conference, which took place in San Francisco this week. A major topic of the conference was the growth of the category of netbooks.
“Dozens and dozens of netbooks were shown,” said Richard Doherty,

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