Molly Wood at cNet has an interesting piece Is the end of the Internet upon us? She says that, to begin with, there are technical problems:
From a purely technical standpoint, the current Internet architecture has some problems. Many people, including the folks who originally helped build the sucker, think it’s just about tapped out in terms of spam, viruses, DoS attacks, increasing numbers of users, and new types of bandwidth-hogging devices (cell phones, DVRs, Xboxes, cars, Wi-Fi-enabled everything).
She also points to political and commercial problems
Meanwhile, a whole mess of political and commercial troubles face the Net. The telcos, who see the Internet as a delivery medium that they control, want to try to charge content providers a second time for that delivery–first, for using the bandwidth in the first place (the current pay structure), then again for “prioritized delivery” of that content.
She worries that the Internet is going to splinter into a bunch of different networks
Basically, I’m starting to wonder if the one-Internet-for-all paradigm we’ve enjoyed so far is about to break and if we can expect a future where we all use smaller, private, for-profit or nonprofit, corporate, and/or political Internets according to our various locations and interests.
Personally, I think she is right to wonder. It looks almost inevitable that different networks will arise. It remains to be seen, of course, how this will affect the average user.